Könyv Artificial Intelligence in Economics and Managment Phillip Ein-Dor

Artificial Intelligence in Economics and Managment

An Edited Proceedings on the Fourth International Workshop: AIEM4 Tel-Aviv, Israel, January 8-10, 1996

Szerző: Phillip Ein-Dor
Nyelv: Angol
Kötés: Kemény kötésű
Kiadó: Springer
Elérhetőség: Beszállítói készleten
Küldés 10-13 napon belül
39 416 Ft
In the past decades several researchers have developed statistical models for the prediction of corp...

Információk a könyvről

Szerző
Nyelv
Angol
Kötés
Könyv - Kemény kötésű
Kiadva
1996
oldal
276
EAN
9780792397618
ISBN
0792397614
Enbook ID
05251385
Kiadó
Súly
1290
Méretek
155 x 235 x 20

Teljes leírás

In the past decades several researchers have developed statistical models for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy, e. g. Altman (1968) and Bilderbeek (1983). A model for predicting corporate bankruptcy aims to describe the relation between bankruptcy and a number of explanatory financial ratios. These ratios can be calculated from the information contained in a company's annual report. The is to obtain a method for timely prediction of bankruptcy, a so ultimate purpose called "early warning" system. More recently, this subject has attracted the attention of researchers in the area of machine learning, e. g. Shaw and Gentry (1990), Fletcher and Goss (1993), and Tam and Kiang (1992). This research is usually directed at the comparison of machine learning methods, such as induction of classification trees and neural networks, with the "standard" statistical methods of linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression. In earlier research, Feelders et al. (1994) performed a similar comparative analysis. The methods used were linear discriminant analysis, decision trees and neural networks. We used a data set which contained 139 annual reports of Dutch industrial and trading companies. The experiments showed that the estimated prediction error of both the decision tree and neural network were below the estimated error of the linear discriminant. Thus it seems that we can gain by replacing the "traditionally" used linear discriminant by a more flexible classification method to predict corporate bankruptcy. The data set used in these experiments was very small however.

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