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Könyv Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting James H. Stock

Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting

Szerző: James H. Stock
Nyelv: Angol
Kötés: Kemény kötésű
Kiadó: The University of Chicago Press
Elérhetőség: Beszállítói készleten alacsony példányszámban
Küldés 13-18 napon belül
37 480 Ft
The inability of forecasters to accurately predict the recent recession emphasizes the need for bett...

Információk a könyvről

Szerző
James H. Stock
Nyelv
Angol
Kötés
Könyv - Kemény kötésű
Kiadva
1993
oldal
348
EAN
9780226774886
ISBN
0226774880
Enbook ID
04549735
Kiadó
The University of Chicago Press
Súly
654
Méretek
157 x 231 x 25

Teljes leírás

The inability of forecasters to accurately predict the recent recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis. The volume begins with an examination of the historical performance of economic forecasts, using data collected from a quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasters from 1968 through 1990. Strengths and weaknesses of these predictions are discussed and new insights into the potential and limitations of forecasting are provided. The following three chapters use recently developed statistical techniques for predicting recessions and expansions, and examine the performance of these techniques during the 1990-91 recession. Chapter five explores why the spread between public and private interest rates has been a good predictor of real economic activity. Chapter six examines the relation between the duration of a business cycle and the likelihood of its end. The final two chapters discuss methods for economic time series and forecasting.

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