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Könyv Forecasting World Trade Edith Skriner

Forecasting World Trade

Econometric Model Development

Szerző: Edith Skriner
Nyelv: Német
Kötés: Puha kötésű
Kiadó: Sudwestdeutscher Verlag Fur Hochschulschriften AG
Elérhetőség: Beszállítói készleten
Küldés 8-11 napon belül
17 884 Ft
As economies become more open to international trade,§also the transmission and propagation of econo...

Információk a könyvről

Szerző
Edith Skriner
Nyelv
Német
Kötés
Könyv - Puha kötésű
Kiadva
2009
oldal
96
EAN
9783838103747
ISBN
3838103742
Enbook ID
07092078
Kiadó
Sudwestdeutscher Verlag Fur Hochschulschriften AG
Súly
141
Méretek
152 x 229 x 5

Teljes leírás

As economies become more open to international trade,§also the transmission and propagation of economic§fluctuations increases. In particular small and open§economies are strongly exposed to fluctuations in the§global business cycle. Hence, the cyclical dynamics§of international trade have implications in§macroeconomic forecasting and international politics.§The analysis on income and growth shows that global§trade is an important factor for sustainable§development. This was the motivation to find an§econometric model that is capable to track the growth§path of world trade. Several univariate processes and§multivariate systems have been tested for their§fitness. The selected determinants of multivariate§systems are based on theory, which suggests that§investment activities and monetary policy influence§the development of the global business cycle. The oil§price and other raw material prices also play a key§role in the economic development. The econometric§analysis illustrates the close relationship of these§determinants. While autoregessive processes are§sufficient in short-term forecasting, multivariate§systems are superior in forecasting longer time horizons.

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